Boa Vista
Using Sentiment and Technical Analysis to Predict Bitcoin with Machine Learning
Carosia, Arthur Emanuel de Oliveira
Cryptocurrencies have gained significant attention in recent years due to their decentralized nature and potential for financial innovation. Thus, the ability to accurately predict its price has become a subject of great interest for investors, traders, and researchers. Some works in the literature show how Bitcoin's market sentiment correlates with its price fluctuations in the market. However, papers that consider the sentiment of the market associated with financial Technical Analysis indicators in order to predict Bitcoin's price are still scarce. In this paper, we present a novel approach for predicting Bitcoin price movements by combining the Fear & Greedy Index, a measure of market sentiment, Technical Analysis indicators, and the potential of Machine Learning algorithms. This work represents a preliminary study on the importance of sentiment metrics in cryptocurrency forecasting. Our initial experiments demonstrate promising results considering investment returns, surpassing the Buy & Hold baseline, and offering valuable insights about the combination of indicators of sentiment and market in a cryptocurrency prediction model.
Text clustering applied to data augmentation in legal contexts
Freitas, Lucas José Gonçalves, Rodrigues, Thaís, Rodrigues, Guilherme, Edokawa, Pamella, Farias, Ariane
Data analysis and machine learning are of preeminent importance in the legal domain, especially in tasks like clustering and text classification. In this study, we harnessed the power of natural language processing tools to enhance datasets meticulously curated by experts. This process significantly improved the classification workflow for legal texts using machine learning techniques. We considered the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) data from the United Nations 2030 Agenda as a practical case study. Data augmentation clustering-based strategy led to remarkable enhancements in the accuracy and sensitivity metrics of classification models. For certain SDGs within the 2030 Agenda, we observed performance gains of over 15%. In some cases, the example base expanded by a noteworthy factor of 5. When dealing with unclassified legal texts, data augmentation strategies centered around clustering prove to be highly effective. They provide a valuable means to expand the existing knowledge base without the need for labor-intensive manual classification efforts.
Using machine learning to understand causal relationships between urban form and travel CO2 emissions across continents
Wagner, Felix, Nachtigall, Florian, Franken, Lukas, Milojevic-Dupont, Nikola, Pereira, Rafael H. M., Koch, Nicolas, Runge, Jakob, Gonzalez, Marta, Creutzig, Felix
Climate change mitigation in urban mobility requires policies reconfiguring urban form to increase accessibility and facilitate low-carbon modes of transport. However, current policy research has insufficiently assessed urban form effects on car travel at three levels: (1) Causality -- Can causality be established beyond theoretical and correlation-based analyses? (2) Generalizability -- Do relationships hold across different cities and world regions? (3) Context specificity -- How do relationships vary across neighborhoods of a city? Here, we address all three gaps via causal graph discovery and explainable machine learning to detect urban form effects on intra-city car travel, based on mobility data of six cities across three continents. We find significant causal effects of urban form on trip emissions and inter-feature effects, which had been neglected in previous work. Our results demonstrate that destination accessibility matters most overall, while low density and low connectivity also sharply increase CO$_2$ emissions. These general trends are similar across cities but we find idiosyncratic effects that can lead to substantially different recommendations. In more monocentric cities, we identify spatial corridors -- about 10--50 km from the city center -- where subcenter-oriented development is more relevant than increased access to the main center. Our work demonstrates a novel application of machine learning that enables new research addressing the needs of causality, generalizability, and contextual specificity for scaling evidence-based urban climate solutions.